Our last entry discussed the concept of “Black Swan” events, a term created by noted author Nassim Nicholas Taleb to describe an event that is (a) so low in probablility that it is unforeseeable and (b) so catastrophic in impact that it changes history. Certainly, risk assessments are predictive in nature and no one can predict the future with complete certainty. But in our view, one of the best tools available for risk assessments is an open mind. This can be a challenge in the EHSS world as we generally have engineering and other technical backgrounds. We have been trained to seek absolutes and eliminate uncertainties. At Elm, we believe that involving external support helps to identify and explore events (and their related exposures) that are relevant but get “technically rationalized” by internal staff. With the BP oil spill and the December 2008 Kingston, Tennessee coal ash pond failure, we began thinking about some of the Black Swan events discussed with clients in the past. Below are a handful of EHSS Black Swan risk events that we have discussed with clients over the past years – and some that are currently on our mind. Radical change in EPA’s regulation of coal
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